Bonus material: MVFree sends the Braves back to the NLCS for a rematch with the World Champion Dodgers.
1) Not all of us bettered ourselves during the pandemic. A new study out of UCLA concluded Americans didn’t necessarily make the most of our time at home last year, through October of 2020 at least. According to the study “Compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak, across those surveyed, the time spent on exercise decreased by 31.2%, while screen time increased by 60.4%. Alcohol consumption increased by 23.2% and smoking by 9%. The average consumption of fast food actually dropped, from 1.41 times/week before to 0.96 times/week during the pandemic.”
Buzz’s Thoughts: While these pandemic induced behaviors can be reversed, it adds to the growing list of evidence that stay at home orders had negative impacts on many people - some of them very serious negative impacts. Sadly the discussion about these important pandemic related decisions has devolved into accusations of wanting people to die vs destroying the economy. But as more evidence has emerged, we now know the issues are much more complicated than people arguing over those two extremes would have us believe.
2) Vote For Democrats, or Form a 3rd Party? As discussions about the future of the Republican party continue, new lines of debate are opening up. A group, including former Governor Christine Todd Whitman, wrote in the New York Times, that moderate Republicans should work with moderate Democrats to defeat Trump First Republicans. However, as Johan Goldberg observes, many of these moderate Republicans thought they were doing just that when then voted for Joe Biden, who has not governed as a moderate. Goldberg instead, urges the formation of a third party to punish Trump First GOPers.
Buzz’s Thoughts: Goldberg is correct that voting for perceived moderate Democrats is risky. There are few “blue dog” Democrats left these days. However, the structural barriers to forming another third party are immense, and would likely only succeed in electing more progressive Democrats. Neither of these approaches are satisfying to conservatives like me who yearn for a post-Trump GOP. For now, I’ll go with an amended Buckley Rule. I’ll vote for the most conservative non-Trump First Republican in GOP primaries and keep advocating for the GOP to embrace a forward looking, principles based conservatism.
3) Supply Chain Blues. Christmas shopping may be a bit messy this year, to say the least. As I type, dozens of cargo ships sit off the shores of each of our major ports. Trucks and trains are log jammed across the country, and major companies across the world are cutting Christmas season earnings forecasts, unable to meet shoppers demands. This is not merely “first world problems” for American consumers. “Supply chain woes have the attention of the Federal Reserve. Recently, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell cited factory shutdowns and shipping problems in helping weigh down economic growth and push inflation above the Fed’s goal of 2 percent annually.”
Buzz’s Thoughts: There appear to be no easy answers to this crisis. While the President has appointed an “ports envoy” and has been meeting with top industry officials, it’s not clear what else can be done except to wait for the supply chain to catch up. Those who predicted a “v-shaped recovery” after the economy ground to a halt last year missed the mark.
4) Low unemployment rates yes, but don’t overlook our low labor force participation rate. While the nation’s unemployment rate continues it’s downward trend, employers are still desperate for employees. Help wanted signs dot the landscape and a new poll by Duke University shows “nearly three-fourths of companies are struggling to fill open positions, leading to a sharp increase in starting wages…” While employees may benefit from the higher wages, it hasn’t yet drawn many people back into the workforce. This chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank shows the Labor Force Participation Rate, defined as “the percentage of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years and older that is working or actively looking for work,” sits at 61.7 (at the end of September). This is below the pre-pandemic rate of 63.3. Labor force participation has been trending down for the past two decades after rising steadily since the mid-1960’s.
Buzz’s Thoughts: I’ve said before that the covid19 pandemic has accelerated certain trends, and disrupted virtually every aspect of our lives. What this means for the labor market remains to be seen. It is possible we are seeing a broad restructuring of how many Americans view work. Some signs point to a greater desire by employees for flexibility from their employers. Perhaps that’s what some of the the 4.3 million Americans who quit their jobs last month are seeking. Either way, this is certainly an issue to keep our eyes on.
5) Breakthrough. In Episode 1 I told you about the Georgia Center for Opportunity’s Breakthrough event focusing on prisoner reentry. Video from the event is available here.
6) Build Back Better? In my twice monthly Get Buzz’d video for my employer, I talked about how some of the provisions of President Biden’s Build Back Better (BBB) bill would reduce employment and worsen safety net cliffs. Economist Casey Mulligan explains how the bill imposes “hefty penalties on work.” Other concerns about the legislation have emerged, including the proposal that banks report to the IRS all accounts “with at least $600 of inflows or outflows annually.” Human infrastructure indeed!
Buzz’s Thoughts: Thus far the conversation about BBB has been mostly about the price tag. As the debate drags on, it’s important to examine what the bill seeks to do, in addition to expressing concern about it’s massive cost.