Highway To The 'Danger Zone.'

As China's struggles increase, they may become more dangerous.

I recently read the book “Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict With China” by Hal Brands and Michael Beckley. The basic premise of the book is that while China is very powerful, they face a number of challenges that are beginning to weaken their ability to remake the world order, as is their desire. These challenges are likely to increase in the coming years, and history tells us that nations on the decline often strike out in dangerous and unpredictable ways. Because of China’s military might and influence around the world, their ability to throw the world into chaos is great. The United States and it’s allies, need to take steps to mitigate this threat, sooner rather than later.

Indeed, China’s looming economic woes are increasing, compounded by debt and bad policies such as the decades long “one child” policy and their “zero covid” policy.

While it may sound impressive, China’s growth rate of more than 5% is significantly less than what its leadership had expected. Moreover, given China’s heavy reliance on debt to keep boosting its economy, it’s not even clear how much of China’s expansion can count as growth. With its population ageing rapidly, the Middle Kingdom’s dream of one day resuming its historic place as the world’s largest economy now looks to be in jeopardy.

Economist Desmond Lachman warns of the impact this could have on the U.S. and the world economies.

Anyone doubting that the U.S. will be affected by China’s economic troubles has not been paying attention to the seriousness of China’s woes. Nor have they been taking note of the impact that this crisis is already having on the economic outlook of its Asian trade partners, Germany, and the commodity-dependent emerging market economies.

Of particular concern is the dark shadow that the Chinese crisis is now casting over the sickly Japanese and German economies. Those economies are the world’s third- and fourth-largest economies after the United States and China. With three of the world’s largest economies now more than likely to experience substantial economic slowdowns, it is difficult to imagine how this will not adversely affect world financial markets and the U.S. economic outlook.

China remains hypersensitive to any perceived slight or aggression, especially when it comes to Taiwan, which they view as a rebellious province.

China said Saturday its troops were "on constant high alert" after two ships belonging to the United States and Canada transited through the Taiwan Strait, a military spokesperson said.

"The Eastern Theatre Command of China's PLA organised naval and air forces to trail their entire course and stand alert in accordance with laws and regulations," said Senior Colonel Shi Yi, referring to the People's Liberation Army.

"Troops in the theatre remain on constant high alert, and will resolutely protect national sovereignty and security as well as regional peace and stability," Shi said in a statement.

Brands and Beckley urge the United States to take action immediately. This begins with understanding that our two nations are engaged in a long term battle to determine whether a world order built on cooperation, economic trade, and political freedom will endure, or if the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) authoritarian desires will reign supreme.

Actions “Danger Zone” proposes include helping Taiwan improve it’s military capacity. Other proposed actions include taking steps to undermine China’s “social credit” system which is imposed internally on it’s citizens, and on dissidents across the globe, including within the U.S.

Additionally, the U.S. should us it’s considerable economic might to woo nations to our side. This strategy proved effective during the U.S - Soviet Cold War and could work again. However, danger lurks close to home. For example, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador applauded Russian and Chinese troops during a military parade in Mexico City just a few days ago.

This is a battle of ideas and if we are willing to engage in it, freedom will win out in the long run. However, we must be prepared for trouble in the short term, including God forbid, direct armed conflict with the CCP. We truly are headed into a “Danger Zone” in our relationship with China. I hope our political leaders are up to the task.