Judgement Day Approaches.

Let's take a look at what might happen on election night in Georgia and across these United States

In less than a week, voting in the 2022 General Election will come to an end. One of the downsides of living in a battleground state is that there is no escape from the ads. Courtesy of my digital screens, I’m reminded daily that the fate of the free world is in the palm of my hand, or at least in the finger I use to mash the screen of the Dominion Ballot Marking Device at my polling place.

Once again Georgia is at the center of the political universe. The much anticipated rematch between Governor Brian Kemp and President of United Earth Stacey Abrams is in full swing, although Abrams has mostly swung and missed this time around. Conventional wisdom at the start of the year assumed Kemp was a goner. Facing a serious primary challenge from former Senator David Perdue, with the backing of Donald Trump and his Mighty MAGA forces, Kemp was thought to be in for the fight of his life. If he survived the primary he would have an uphill climb against Abrams, who has spent the last four years honing her impressive political skills and enhancing her astounding fundraising prowess. A united Democratic Party marching in lockstep with their fearless leader would move Georgia from the purple column to the solidly blue.

Yet, here we are, days before the election and it’s Kemp who has run a virtually flawless campaign, and raised the money necessary to rebuff Abrams’ attacks. The Real Clear Politics average shows Kemp with an impressive 7.6 point lead. In fact RCP shows no polls with Abrams in the lead…ever. This race is over folks. In fact, one wonders why Brian Kemp’s name isn’t being bandied about as a 2024 GOP contender. Seriously.

The other big Peach State race just might be the one that decides who controls the U.S. Senate. It’s deja vu all over again. Pastor Raphael Warnock was a first time candidate a mere 22 months ago when he and John Ossoff shocked the world on January 5, 2021, claiming both of Georgia’s seats and giving the world a 50-50 Senate. As a Pastor, Warnock is a superb communicator and his video ads are well crafted. If not for 40 year high inflation and rising crime, he’d be a shoe in for reelection. Fortunately for him, he’s running against Trump’s hand picked candidate Herschel Walker.

It’s hard to explain to non-Georgians the special place Walker occupies in the hearts of fans of the University of Georgia - and how many UGA fans there are in this state. As a Georgia Tech alum, I’m painfully aware of the size of their fan base. Walker however, posses few of the communication skills of Warnock. More importantly, Walker’s personal baggage would fill up the tractor trailer UGA uses to carry their football equipment on road games.

Amazingly, Warnock and Walker are in a dead heat, with recent polls giving Walker a slight edge. In my opinion, what happens on November 8 depends on the size of Kemp’s victory. If Kemp really does win by 7.6 points or more, Walker just might pull it out. Otherwise we’ll have a runoff four weeks later. Depending on how things go across the nation, this seat might once again be all the Senate marbles.

One other race to watch in Georgia is the Second Congressional district. Incumbent Democrat Sanford Bishop has survived serious challenges before, and several wave elections, during his 30 years in Congress. Thomasville attorney Chris West is well known in southwest Georgia’s political circles. There has been little polling or media coverage of this race, but as polls close at 7 PM on the east coast, keep an eye on this one. If West pulls off the upset, it would be a harbinger of things to come for the GOP.

Other things I’m watching in the last week before election day:

• Will voting in Georgia stay about 34% higher than 2018 voting? If so, the raw vote total could rival the total of number of voters in 2020. Off year elections rarely match Presidential year voting.

• The GOP is all but certain to gain a majority in the House of Representatives. This is not a surprise. However, the number of seats the GOP might gain seems to be increasing by the day. Yesterday the Cook Political Report moved the ratings on 10 seats in places like California, Illinois, and New York toward the GOP. Democrats will likely keep most of those seats, but the fact heavily Democratic seats are suddenly in play is bad news for them. Thirty-three seats are tossups with 228 already likely in the GOP column. How big will Kevin McCarthy’s majority be?

• Seven Senate races are toss ups. It seems increasingly likely the GOP will capture control of the Senate as well. While capturing all seven would be shocking, will Mitch McConnell wind up with a 52 or 53 vote majority, or will it all come down to Georgia once again?

• Perhaps everyone is wrong about the incoming Red Wave and we’re really on the verge of a Blue Wave. This guy thinks so.

• From the New York Times: “Democrats have spent nearly $320 million on ads focused on abortion rights, more than 10 times as much as the $31 million they have spent on spots about inflation, according to data from AdImpact, a media tracking firm. They have spent nearly $140 million on crime ads.” Will this prove to have been the right plan or not?

• When the final accounting is done, who will have spent more money promoting Trump-endorsed candidates, Democrats or Donald Trump?

• How many of my Georgia election day predictions will be correct?