More Agenda Items To Break The Logjam
Identifying more issues that 70% of Americans support.
In my last newsletter I began the task of exploring whether or not we could put together a list of issues that 70% of Americans would support. You can read it here.
The first two issues I identified with over 70% support of Americans were a 1) federal balanced budget and 2) term limits on elected officials.
Before I move on, a reader commented “That assumes voting is issue-based and not tribal.” This is a fair point that we should consider. Would voters support a candidate of the “other” party if the issues were appealing enough, or are too many people locked in to their side of the aisle that a consensus agenda isn’t possible?
Pew documents what anyone involved in politics knows to be true: partisan hostility is on the rise. Overwhelming numbers of Republicans and Democrats believe people in the other party are immoral, dishonest, and closed minded. This indicates many partisans wouldn’t be open to voting for someone of the other party, even if they agreed with the issues that candidate was proposing.
However, as this article points out, decreasing numbers of voters identify with either political party. Forty-four percent of Gen Xers, as well as 52% of Millennials and Gen Zers call themselves independents. Boomers and members of the Silent Generation are more partisan, with only 33% and 26% of those folks respectively, wearing the independent label. This data indicates more openness to a unifying candidate, especially as Millennials and Gen Z claim a greater share of the voting population. Ultimately, I think this trend will continue, unless more popular figures emerge within the party apparatus.
Now let’s look for some other 70% issues.
I shared in my last newsletter polling showing issues most important to Americans currently. In order of importance, they were: Inflation, gas prices/energy costs, gun issues, immigration, the economy, education/school debt, environment/climate change, abortion, and covid19.
Inflation and gas prices/energy costs are important, but temporary. Let’s group them with the economy, as they are after all, economic issues. As for covid19, given that 50% of poll respondents said it was their top issue last December, compared with only 4% in June, I think we can set this one aside.
This leaves us the economy, gun issues, immigration, education/school debt, environment/climate change, and abortion. Let’s tackle three of these issues now, and the other three in the next newsletter.
Gun Issues: As with many polls of top issues, the terms used can mean different things to different people. For the sake of this exercise I’ll define “gun issues” as concern over rising crime, support/opposition to gun control, and support/opposition to the Second Amendment.
Only 24% of people want to see the Second Amendment repealed. The Second Amendment is here to stay, and thus the right to personally own firearms.
However, there is strong support for a number of restrictions on who should posses firearms, and how there are sold. Gallup found that:
92% support background checks for all gun sales.
86% support prohibiting people determined to be a danger from purchasing firearms
81% support allowing Courts to order confiscation from people determined to be a danger
77% support enacting a 30-day waiting period for all gun sales
76% support raising the legal age to purchase a firearm to 21
Only 55% however, support banning high-capacity magazines
Finally, 80% of Americans have a great deal or fair amount of concern over crime and violence in the U.S.
Despite the passion many feel for or against firearms, this is an important issue that any consensus agenda must deal with. While strong supporters and opponents of firearm ownership may support or oppose various items in the list from Gallup, there is a possibility of obtaining broad consensus on a path forward on this issue. that protects the right to bear arms, and keeps our communities safe.
Education/School Debt: Education is always top of mind for millions of Americans. Parents want their kids to get a quality education, and be prepared for college or the workforce. School debt is an important issue as well. According to Forbes, total college debt in the U.S. is an astounding $1.75 Trillion.
Student loan forgiveness proves to be popular in concept, with 64% supporting the idea, but only if taxes aren’t raised to cover the cost, it doesn’t cause inflation, tuition increases, or benefitted people who make $150,000 or less.
To reach our 70% threshold, other plans to address current student debt will need to be proposed. In addition, something must be done to address the rising cost of a college education. Debt forgiveness, such as the plan recently enacted by President Biden, do nothing to address the cost of college, nor the debt being incurred by current college students.
In the K-12 arena, there are policies that enjoy 70% support. According to Ed Choice, Education Savings Accounts are supported by 76% of school parents (67% of all adults), vouchers are supported by 71% of school parents (62% of all adults), and charter schools are supported by 73% of school parents (63% of all adults). These levels of support have existed for many years, which begs the question: why don’t more political candidates run on them?
Voters are also very concerned about learning loss that occurred during the covid19 pandemic. It doesn’t quite top 70%, but candidates shouldn’t ignore parents concerns here.
Conclusion: school choice issues such as ESAs, vouchers, and charter schools make our list.
Abortion: Oftentimes people who seek to build a consensus agenda as I’m trying to do avoid controversial issues like abortion. However, ignoring issues people feel very strongly about is not a way to break the political gridlock we’re experiencing. Folks may rally around some issues, but the moment someone raises tough issues like abortion, if you don’t have an approach to addressing the problem, you’ve lost them. Thus, if you’re going to build an agenda to break the gridlock, you’ve got to talk about some tough issues.
Polling about abortion is often reported as if the issue is simple. This Pew headline "About six-in-ten Americans say abortion should be legal in all or most cases" glosses over the complexity their own polling demonstrates. As they found in May of this year, only 19% of Americans think Abortion should be legal with no exceptions through the entire pregnancy, only 8% think it should be illegal with no exceptions, and only 7% think abortion should be legal with some exceptions no matter how long the woman has been pregnant. Thus, most Americans are somewhere outside those three positions. In fact, Georgia’s fetal heartbeat law, which only allows abortion in rare cases after the baby’s heartbeat has been detected (around 6 weeks), has the support of 45% of people, according to the Pew poll. At 14 weeks, 55% of Americans opposing allowing an abortion, except in rare cases. Roe v Wade allowed abortion to be legal through the end of the second trimester, or around 26 weeks. So when you hear someone say “Americans oppose overturning Roe” that’s not entirely true.
Nevertheless, an overarching policy on abortion is not likely to garner 70% support of Americans. However, certain abortion positions do garner that level of support, as Forbes reported:
“An Associated Press/NORC poll in June found 87% support abortion when the woman’s life is in danger, 84% support exceptions in the case of rape or incest”
Additionally restrictions such as parental notification, bans on transporting minors across state lines to obtain an abortion, and prohibiting taxpayer funding of abortion likely also have strong support. While an overarching abortion policy may not meet out 70% threshold, there are aspects of the abortion debate which would, which is why I believe overturning Roe was the right decision. It allows greater freedom to come to a consensus on how states should construct their law on this complex issue. And those law can reflect the values of the people in the various states.
Taking on issues Americans consider most important makes it difficult to find 70% solutions. However, I hope I’ve demonstrated that even on divisive issues like guns and abortion, there are opportunities to build consensus.
In the next edition, we’ll tackle the economy, immigration, the environment/climate change, and see where our consensus agenda stands. Please comment, subscribe, and share this post. Thanks!