The AI Future Is Here: Thoughts on "The Coming Wave" and "The Conservative Futurist."
Like it or not, AI is not just shaping the future, it's shaping the now.
While artificial intelligence has been talked about for generations, it burst into the forefront of our collective minds in November 2022 with the public release of ChatGPT. Since then the discussion about AI has spanned the spectrum from fears of the end of humanity to AI creating a future of unfathomable beauty and knowledge.
Two recent books, Mustafa Suleyman’s The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-first Century's Greatest Dilemma and James Pethokoukis’ The Conservative Futurist: How to Create the Sci-Fi World We Were Promised, tackle the questions of what our technology-driven future will look like—and how we should prepare for it. Together, these books explore the unprecedented opportunities and complex challenges emerging technologies pose for society and the profound power shifts these changes could usher in.
The Coming Wave
Mustafa Suleyman, co-founder of DeepMind, offers a cautionary yet optimistic outlook on the rapidly accelerating impact of new technologies. His book examines the massive power reshaping our society as AI, synthetic biology, and advanced computing increasingly take center stage. Suleyman addresses the “dilemma” that defines this new era: how to balance the transformative power of technology with the potential risks it brings to security, privacy, and the very fabric of democracy.
You might remember DeepMind from the documentary “AlphaGo.”
Key Themes:
The Double-Edged Sword of Innovation: Suleyman emphasizes the “wave” of innovation as both a force for good and a potential source of harm. Advanced AI, for instance, can enhance productivity, healthcare, and learning—but it could also disrupt jobs, infringe on privacy, and amplify existing inequalities.
Embrace the good. Mitigate the bad: A significant portion of Suleyman’s work revolves around the ethical considerations required for the safe deployment of AI technology. He argues the greatest challenge is not technological but human: whether we can develop ethical frameworks and enforceable regulations that anticipate the impact of these tools before they spiral out of control.
Navigating the Shifting Power Dynamics: As technology becomes more powerful, Suleyman contends, so do the entities that control it. Governments, private corporations, and global institutions are all vying for influence over the technologies of tomorrow, and this could alter the geopolitical landscape dramatically. How society approaches governance in this era will largely dictate whether technology empowers or subjugates us.
The Conservative Futurist
James Pethokoukis, AEI scholar and author of the Substack “Faster, Please,” takes a more practical approach, focusing on how to build a future that lives up to the lofty promises of science fiction. While his focus is distinctly optimistic, Pethokoukis recognizes that achieving a future where everyone benefits from advanced technology requires active policy-making, imaginative economic thinking, and a commitment to fostering innovation at every level of society.
Key Themes:
Tech-Driven Prosperity: Pethokoukis makes a strong case for why the traditional conservative economic principles of small government, limited regulations, and a pro-growth focus, can help society achieve a more prosperous future. He contends that the United States’ potential for innovation is underutilized and that unleashing this potential could lead to breakthroughs across healthcare, energy, and manufacturing. Sadly, neither candidate for President is talking about limiting regulation, shrinking government, or creating a market-focused pro-growth economy,
Overcoming Stagnation: Inspired by a future often depicted in science fiction, Pethokoukis urges policymakers to abandon “tech pessimism” and focus on creating conditions for breakthrough innovations. He is critical of “status quo bias” and risk aversion, which he sees as holding back technological progress.
Constructive Optimism: While critical of over-regulation, Pethokoukis is not naive about technology’s risks. He advocates for a thoughtful approach that balances caution with a sense of adventure and ambition, stressing that proactive policy is necessary to make technology work for society’s benefit. He believes in promoting individual autonomy in decision-making while creating safeguards that prevent technology from becoming an engine of inequality.
Bridging the Two Visions
While these two books differ in tone and focus, both underscore a critical point: the future is upon us, changing rapidly, and society needs both vision and accountability to mitigate the dangers that exist. Suleyman’s cautionary approach to ethics, governance, and security pairs well with Pethokoukis’s enthusiasm for human potential, as together they offer a comprehensive view of the promise and challenges posed by tomorrow’s technologies.
Both authors emphasize that if society hopes to harness technology for the common good, it must adopt both cautious foresight and bold imagination. We need policymakers and industry leaders who will seek to protect individual freedoms without stifling innovation.
Ultimately, both authors underscore the idea that the technological choices we make today will reverberate for generations. It’s up to us to ensure that they’re choices we can be proud of.
