"The Fourth Turning Is Here."
If author Neil Howe is correct, the next ten years will be rough.
Many years ago I read the book “The Fourth Turning” by William Strauss and Neil Howe. The authors put forward the theory that history operates in cycles that normally last eighty to one hundred years, called a “saeculum.” Each saeculum is made up of four generations of people and four “turnings” that have tremendous similarities with previous turnings within previous saeculum. The four turnings can be characterized thusly; First Turning: The High, Second Turning: The Awakening, Third Turning: The Unraveling, and Fourth Turning: The Crisis.
Furthermore, each generation follows an archetype: Prophet, Nomad, Hero, and Artist. Matching these archetypes up with the generations today we see this:
Silent Generation: Born between 1925 - 1942. An Artist generation, too young to fight in World War II, but who helped stabilize the nation in the post war years.
Boomers: Born between 1943 - 1960. A Prophet generation that led the ‘60s cultural awakening, as well as the “Jesus Movement,” the last major Christian revival in American history.
Gen X: Born between 1961 - 1981. A Nomad generation, generally left to raise themselves as “latchkey” kids. The last generation that was raised before the Internet age.
Millennials: Born between 1982 - 2005. A Hero generation who will have to come together to lead us through the coming crisis.
Gen Z or “Homelanders” in Howe’s terminology: Born between 2006 - 2029. An Artist generation who will bring the country together after the coming crisis concludes.
These themes were expanded upon by Neil Howe in the 2023 book “The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End” which I finished reading last week.
By Howe’s calculation, the United States is in the midst of a crisis that will come to a head somewhere around the year 2033. What form might this crisis take? Well, in American history there have been three previous crises; The Revolutionary War (1775 - 1783), The Civil War (1861 - 1865), and World War II (1939 - 1945). Not a comforting thought as to how our current crisis period ends.
Indeed, you can see the seeds of global conflict that could create a third world war growing right now. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the horrific October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas against Israel followed by Israel’s military response to that attack have the world on edge. These conflicts certainly have the potential to spread to other regions, bringing other nations into the conflict. Iran backs many of the terrorist organizations making threats and launching attacks against Israel and the U.S. and they seem eager to widen the conflict in the Middle East.
Just yesterday, three American troops were killed and over thirty injured in a drone attack by Iranian-backed militants. In recent weeks, Iran has launched attacks against what it terms “Iranian terrorists” in Pakistan, Iraq, and Syria. It’s easy to see how the situation in this region of the world could deteriorate further, causing a much wider military conflict involving many nations.
A second potential end to our period of crisis could be financial. America’s national debt has exploded in recent years to mind-boggling levels. A quick glance at the U.S. National Debt Clock shows our government owes well over $34 Trillion. That debt is now 123% of our Gross Domestic Product, meaning our ability to pay our debt is shrinking as our debt continues to grow. With all the political dysfunction in our country, does anyone really trust folks in Washington to make wise decisions that walk us back from this fiscal cliff? It’s not far-fetched to think a political crisis could lead to a financial crisis that throws the U.S., and thus the world into an economic depression.
A third possible crisis could be a “national divorce.” With political nastiness at high levels and seemingly increasing daily, some people have talked about “red” and “blue” states going their separate ways. While this seems far-fetched, is it really? If we continue on our present course with ever-increasing political vitriol, national leaders unwilling or incapable of putting a stop to the nonsense, and citizens claiming they want change but continuing to vote for the people who seek to divide us, what do we think the outcome of all this will be?
Despite these growing storm clouds, all is not lost. As Howe points out, during every previous crisis, Americans have risen to the occasion and pulled our nation through successfully, often leaving more Americans better off than before the crisis.
As I indicated above, Millennials are the hero generation of our current saeculum. They’ve faced criticism from older generations claiming they are weak, entitled, and generally worthless. Guess what? Every generation of young Americans has faced similar criticisms from older generations. Even the generation that fought and won World War II was thought to be a bunch of deadbeats…until the crisis came and they rose to meet the challenge.
As the scriptures tell us, “There is nothing new under the sun.” America has faced crises that could have ended it. Perhaps we’ll face another such crisis in the next decade. Time will tell if the Millennial generation will rise to meet the challenge, but I have faith that they will. As an early Gen Xer, I’m willing to set aside the cynicism so common amongst my peers and help Millenials bring us through this crisis.