Things I Hope Will Happen In 2024 (That Probably Won't).

Happy New Year!

I hope you, your family, and friends had a wonderful holiday season.

At the start of every new year, we see folks making predictions for what they think will happen over the next twelve months. I thought I do something similar, but with a twist. I’ll let you know what I’d like to see happen, and acknowledge that in most cases, it’s probably wishful thinking on my part.

Here we go…in no particular order.

• I hope someone other than Donald Trump and Joe Biden win their respective Party’s nominations. Probability of this happening: 15% chance the Republicans nomination someone else, 0.5% chance the Democrats nomination someone else.

  • There are some glimmer of hope in Iowa and New Hampshire polling that suggest the GOP might have more of a race than conventional wisdom suggests. Let hope arise!

• I hope “populist moment” (socialist-populist on the Left, nationalist-populist on the Right) is coming to an end. Probability of the end of the populist moment in 2024: 10%

  • Many of our nation’s highest profile politicians are pushing some form of populism as a means of “owning” the other side. But neither Left-wing nor Right-wing populism can deliver on its promises. This moment will pass, but perhaps not in 2024.

• I hope turnout in the 2024 election will remain high. Probability of high turnout in 2024 elections: 90%

  • Turnout in the last few general elections has been much higher than in previous elections. I expect this to continue, mostly because both sides see the other side winning as the end of America.

• I hope the United States and European governments don’t just continue to support Ukraine in their battle against Russia, but give them what they need to win. Probability of giving Ukraine more: 5%

  • In my opinion, it’s vitally important Ukraine win. We should give them everything they’re asking for and more. But it’s unlikely to happen, as public opinion on both sides of the aisle sours on supporting the Ukrainians.

• I hope the war in Ukraine, and Israel’s war against Hamas won’t spread to other parts of the world in 2024. Probability of these wars not spreading: 40%

  • Bret Stephens on a recent “Call Me Back” Podcast points out that WWII began as a series of regional conflicts. We’re in a dangerous place here folks.

• I hope the downward trend in religious participation will reverse in 2024. Probability is the downward trend reversing: 12%

  • It’s not getting much media attention, but in 2023 there were pockets of what could become a broader spiritual awakening, mostly on college campuses.

• I hope the flood of misinformation we’re experiencing will subside. Probability of misinformation subsiding: 5%

  • I think this will happen eventually, but probably not until folks have had enough of the nonsense…and we develop better skills at discerning fact from fiction.

• I hope the pushback against the worst parts of the internet will continue. Probability of continued pushback: 75%

  • Legislation making it harder for kids to access porn sites and join social media platforms will continue to proliferate in state legislatures. The effectiveness of these new laws remains to be seen. The long term solution will likely better technology parents can use to protect their kids.

• I hope Artificial Intelligence will prove to be beneficial, as opposed to the end of humanity. Probability of AI being beneficial: 50%

  • Honestly, it’s a toss up. I think there are many wonderful, even transformational uses for AI. But my trust in Silicon Valley’s Overlords is low. This is a risky technology in the hands of bad actors and those with an agenda.

• I hope the turmoil in K-12 and Higher Education will continue, and lead to better outcomes for students. Probability of better outcomes for students: 75%

  • State Legislatures continue to increase choices for K-12 students. This trend will continue. The problems that have surfaced at our elite Universities will take longer to fix, but the market will demand change, so change will come.

Let me know what you think about my “hopes.”