Thoughts on the Georgia GOP Primary
It's Easy To Interpret Election Results By What We Want To See Rather Than What Really Is
Last Tuesday, Georgia held its Party Primaries. You might have heard that incumbent Governor Brian Kemp smashed his Trump endorsed opponent, former U.S. Senator David Perdue, 74% to 22%. That Kemp won without a runoff is not much of a surprise. Polling had shown Kemp with a lead of almost 20 points heading into the weekend before the primary. However, Kemp won by an astounding 52 points. The polls were way, way off.
Perhaps more surprising, was Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger’s victory over Congressman Jody Hice (also endorsed by Donald Trump), and two other candidates. Left for dead in the furor over the 2020 election, Raffensperger secured victory with just over 52% percent of the vote.
Other Trump endorsed candidates were also dispatched with ease. Incumbent Attorney General Chris Carr pounded John Gordon 74% - 26%, and Insurance Commissioner John King (appointed to the position by Kemp after the sitting Insurance Commissioner was indicted for stealing $2.5 million from his former employer) smashed Patrick Witt 71% to 17%, with a third challenged drawing 12%.
Does this mean the GOP has rejected Trump and his grievances about the 2020 election? Perhaps, but there is plenty of evidence to counter this idea. For example, former Democrat turned MAGA Superstar Vernon Jones grabbed a spot in a runoff for Georgia’s 10th Congressional District. For those unfamiliar, Jones was a lifelong Democrat, until he endorsed Trump for reelection. Jones was for many years the elected CEO of DeKalb county, a Democratic stronghold in Metro Atlanta. Jones was also elected to the Georgia State House as a Democrat. Jones for a time, was running for Governor against Kemp, but when the Trump endorsement alluded him and went to Perdue, Jones decided to run for the open 10th Congressional district, made vacant by Hice’s decision to run for Secretary of State. Trump quickly endorsed Jones and the race was on. However, the 10th is miles away geographically, and culturally, from DeKalb county. Thus, the fact Jones made the runoff must be attributed to MAGA World’s loyalty to Trump. Jones faces a tough road ahead, as he only secured 21.5% of the vote. First place finisher Mike Collins secured 25.6% of the vote in the eight way race.
Other Trump endorsed candidates won as well. The controversialist Marjorie Taylor Greene easily defeated five other Republicans and will cruise to reelection in the fall in her solidly conservative district. Herschel Walker cruised to the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate. While Walker was endorsed by Trump, his victory has much more to do with his legendary status as a Heisman Trophy winner, and leader of the University of Georgia team that was the college football national championship 41 years ago. Trump however, talked Walker into running, so his influence there must be noted.
What to make of all of this? Some political observers who believe Trump’s hold on the GOP is stronger than ever have dismissed Kemp’s and Raffensperger’s victories as outliers powered by Democratic crossover votes. This is oddly the same conclusion a few local Trump superfan conspiracy theorists have reached. Georgia is an open primary state, and there were Democrats who crossed over, perhaps as many as 80,000. Some crossover voters publicly said they did so to vote against Trump’s slate of candidates. But the victories of Kemp, Carr, and King were so massive, these relatively few crossover votes had little impact (there were over 1.2 M Republican ballots cast). Perhaps Democratic crossovers allowed Raffensperger to win without a runoff, but even so, his lead among traditional Republicans was substantial.
It would be easy to look at Georgia and conclude this is the beginning of the end of Trump’s stranglehold of the GOP. I think this too would be a mistake. Trump’s endorsement still has value. Enough to topple popular incumbents like Kemp? No. But enough to vault J.D. Vance to a win in Ohio with just over 30% of the vote. Enough to propel Dr. Oz to a razor thin lead in Pennsylvania, another state that doesn’t require 50% + 1 to win. Enough to put a controversial former Democrat from Atlanta into a runoff in one of Georgia’s most conservative districts.
I suspect when the 2022 primaries are over, we’ll be able to put a number of the value of Trump’s endorsement. It will likely be a double digit boost for candidates in open seats, as Vance, Oz, and Jones were in, but a low double digit boost, more like 10 - 20 points. That’s my guess as things stand now.
Of more importance, I think, is how Brian Kemp handled Trump’s strident opposition to his reelection. Kemp never attacked Trump and never took the bait as Trump threw barb after bard his way. He stuck to his message of talking about his successful record over the past four years. In the end, Georgia voters seemed much more interested in that than in Trump’s desire for revenge. Kemp’s massive victory could give other candidates who want to run independently of Trump, the courage to do so, and a successful pattern to follow.
For more on the 2022 Georgia primary election, check out the Peach Pundit Podcast.